Credit Suisse is making headlines this week, after its top strategist Jonathan Golub became the first Wall Street analyst to issue an official 2019 stock market forecast.
During an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” Golub, one of street’s biggest bulls, suggested he’s open to upgrading it.
“If there’s an upside risk, it really would be that profits come in better than everyone thinks,” the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist said Wednesday.
An element of that scenario would likely be easing wage pressures, which would “increase my optimism the most,” he said.
However, he didn’t want to delay his annual outlook to see if that situation would materialize. According to Golub, publishing his 2019 outlook note four months before the new year gives him wiggle room to adjust it and help client conversations focus on the longer term picture.
“They’re starting to focus too much on the short term. And, I wanted to push back the dialogue to where the 12 to 18 month view on the market is,” he said.
His S&P 500 2019 year-end target is 3,350, which would be an 11 percent gain from his 2018 year-end target of 3,000. Typically, Wall Street analysts issue their yearly forecasts in late November and December.
“The market has been doing incredibly well really since the lows in February,” he said. “We have a really good economy right now, We have very strong corporate profits, and the risks to the business cycle are low, which means the next recession is not going to be happening in 2018 or 2019.”
And, the technology sector, he added, will be a key driver as the stock market rally carries into next year.
“These are companies with tremendous revenue growth and terrific profit margins and huge upside to their business prospects,” Golub said. “I think that we underestimate it. … I do think that’s your big winner.”